Durresommer 2018; Bild: Andreas Schwarzkopf/ CC BY-SA 4.0
Commentary: How weather speculations become obsolete and play into the hands of the climate change deniers
"Threat of a new summer of drought?" At least the Tagesschau had put a question mark here. The Bild newspaper spared itself this and announced ominously: "Summer 2019 – Germany faces a new heat record". Many other media outlets had published similar articles in late April, quickly making the connection between climate change and the threat of drought in 2019.
So Wolfgang Pomrehn wrote at this point: "We can now experience climate change live. April 2019 is the 13th anniversary in this country. too warm month in a row. This has never happened in Germany since 1881."
Like the Tagesschau, Pomrehn also put a question mark behind the forecast about a possible drought summer. This also makes a lot of sense. For what has been forgotten in the many reports about the impending drought summer: It is not even possible to make such forecasts with a sufficient degree of probability. The weather pattern is far too complex for that to be the case.
The basis of the reports was a press release of the German Weather Service, which focused on the fact that the precipitation deficits of the last year had not yet been compensated for.
In many regions of Germany in 2019 at the start of the growing season, the soil is much drier than the multi-year average. For comparison: Even in the dry year 2018, according to calculations of the German Weather Service (DWD), the soil moisture values in April were significantly above the current values of this year.
German weather service
And if it does rain?
This was about a report based on facts. But then followed a sentence that was probably not noticed in large parts of the media.
Dr. Udo Busch, head of agricultural meteorology at the DWD: "If the dry weather continues in the coming months, the drought of 2018 could be repeated or even surpassed." Then agriculture in Germany had to reckon with yield losses again in 2019. In addition, forests and plants with roots that tap into moisture in deeper soil layers could also be affected this year.
German Weather Service
In the meantime, the central message of this section is printed again just below the heading: "If the drought continues, the next summer of drought threatens in Germany". In the press release there is no indication of how likely a prolonged drought is considered to be. Das ist auch verstandlich, weil eben Wetterprognosen uber einen langeren Zeitraum extrem unsicher sind. The German Weather Service did not forecast a drought summer in Central Europe in 2019, but correctly pointed out that such a drought summer is imminent if the current drought continues.
Moreover, it was correctly described that the effects of such a drought summer could be even more severe this year, if the drought continues. But, what if there is rain after all?? Then the warning of a Durresommer 2019 would be obsolete, but not the warnings of the consequences of the climate change made by capitalism.
Does a drought summer not fit into apocalyptic ideas?
The question must be asked, why in many media the Durresommer was wrongly presented as a forecast of the German Weather Service and the possible form of the sentence was not considered. Now this has certainly to do with the fact that such a summer of droughts would fit very well with the coverage of a dramatically worsening climate crisis. Apocalyptic ideas do not only appeal to the new youth environmental movement.
A movement against extinction is organized and hourglasses are carried on demonstrations to show that people are running out of time. In such a scenario a Durresommer, which makes Central Europe a desert, naturally fit well. Here may also be the reason that this prognosis was questioned so little.
In the meantime, the Bild newspaper has also backed down a bit.
A summerly message and its extreme consequences: The German Weather Service (DWD) announced a few days ago an imminent Durresommer. The outcry was coarse: What?? May that? Goes that?
The announcement of the DWD actually went on 24. April rather unnoticed out. In the night then the agency message came to it. And the warning of the Durresommer. Many media, including BILD, quoted from the message.
Hours later, the German Meteorological Service (DWD) repeated the agency’s announcement at night: It was to make clear that, according to the German Meteorological Service, a new summer of drought could be imminent if the drought continues over the next few months.
Bild newspaper
Also in the correction picture remains with the wrong representation that the German weather service had announced an imminent Durresommer and only afterwards inserted that the prognosis can arrive, if the dryness continues.
In fact, the German Weather Service has subsequently clarified this important premise in the subheading. But the text said from the beginning that the Durres summer could occur if the current drought persisted.